Headlines:

  • The bird flu has been found for the 2nd time in less than a week in the US. Birds in both Wisconsin and Tennessee have now been tested positive for the bird flu.
  • Crop Production and USDA Supply/Demand reports are out Thursday at 11 am CDT.
  • grain prices trim gains as funds take a breather
    Ideas of the Brazilian soybean and corn harvest got another boost, while crop reports from the US southern Plains showed little reason to start fretting over drought damage to winter wheat yet, and absent fund buying, grain markets trimmed their recent gains. The latest forecast for Brazilian soybeans from FC Stone came in at a hefty 109.07m tonnes, nearly 5m tonnes up from its February forecast, with favorable weather across most of the country’s growing regions. This would be an increase of almost 15m tonnes. FC Stone also raised its forecast for soybean exports by some 2m tonnes, to 59m tonnes. May soybean futures slumped back below the 100-day moving average, finishing down 1.1%, at $10.25 ¾ a bushel.
  • China sales help cotton to 3-year top. Dry Plains lift wheat
    Chinese demand, or US dryness, proved strong cards for agricultural commodity bulls to start the week. Without the support of one or the other factor, well, the prevailing trend for prices was downwards, little helped by strength in the dollar, which gained 0.3% against a basket of currencies to recoup some of its losses of the last session. (A firmer dollar cuts the competitiveness of dollar-denominated assets, such as many agricultural commodities.)

 

Summary:

Beneficial weather reports emanating from South America and Brazil has the US Oilseed and Grain markets on pins and needles. May Beans finished 11.50 lower today ahead of the USDA supply & demand report that is scheduled for this Thursday. The South American crop outlook also weighed down on Corn. Wheat started the day off rallying yesterday then profit taking kicked muting the price gains. Today the profit taking subsided about an hour into the regular session open followed by continued strength through the balance of the day recovering all of the day’s losses. May Corn was off 2.50 cents and July Wheat was flat. So far this week the grain and oilseed markets have been mostly quite in trading with moderate trading volume. The recent South American crop size projections is perhaps the main culprit in keeping prices in check and will probably continue to do so for weeks to come. We are not looking for big movement ahead of Thursday.