Headlines:
China’s soybean imports, from all origins, to fall short of previous forecasts
China’s soybean imports – from all origins – will grow much slower than had been expected, at their slowest in six years, thanks to efforts to boost domestic output, a surge in distillers’ grains output, and curtailed demand. The US Department of Agriculture’s Beijing bureau pegged at 100.5m tonnes China’s soybean imports in 2018-19, a gain of 3.50m tonnes year on year. While a record high, the estimate is 2.5m tonnes below the USDA’s official figure and would represent the smallest year-on-year gain in imports since 2012-13. The bureau – which said its analysis does not include any consideration for the effect of 25% tariffs on soybean imports from the US, expected to go into effect next Friday – said that its more downbeat forecast was “due to the combination of the modest increase in domestic soybean production, together with the slowdown in growth of soymeal use”.
Grain, cotton, soy futures soar, despite mixed US sowings data. Wheat up 4%
Grain, soybean and cotton futures attempted a firm close to a difficult month, despite much-anticipated US acreage and stocks data coming in mixed, with investors renewed weather worries as behind the buying. Corn futures for September stood up 2.0% at $3.61 ¼ a bushel in midday deals in Chicago, where August soybean futures stood up 1.0% at $8.75 a bushel. Chicago soft red winter wheat futures for September soared 4.9% to $5.07 a bushel, rocketing back above their 200-day moving average. In New York, cotton for December gained 2.0% to 85.19 cents a pound, jumping back above its 50-day moving average. For cotton, the headway came largely after a much-watched US Department of Agriculture report on US crop sowings showing that farmers planted 13.52m acres of the fiber this year. While a rise of more than 900,000 acres year on year, the total was well below the 13.78m-acre figure than expected by investors, who had forecast high prices giving cotton more allure among growers. Friday’s figure was “well below pre-report expectations”, said Louis Rose at Rose Commodity Group, noting that “56% of estimated area is within Texas, where droughty conditions are reportedly forcing abandonment of both irrigated and non-irrigated fields”. The reading was in fact very close to the 13.47m-acre number shown in a USDA briefing in March on what investors intended to seed.
Summary:
According to the USDA, farmers planted about what the trade had expected for the 2018 Corn and Soybean acreage in 2018. The USDA pegged the US 2018 Corn acreage at 89.1 million versus the average trade estimate at 88.56 million. The USDA’s March estimate was 88.02. The USDA estimated that farmers planted 89.6 million acres of Soybean versus the average trade estimate of 89.69 million. The USDA’s March estimate was 88.98 million.
U.S. 2018 Acreage in millions of acres
Additionally, the USDA pegged the US June 1 Corn stocks at 5.306 billion bushels compared to the trade average estimate of 5.27 billion bushels. The stocks figure for this same time last year was 5.22 billion. Soybeans June 1 stocks were pegged at 1.22 billion bushels. The trade average estimate was 1.2 billion and last year this time came in at 966 million bushels. The USDA pegged 2018 June 1 Wheat stocks at 1.11 billion bushels. The trade average estimate came in at of 1.09 billion. The estimate for this time last year was at 1.18 billion. The markets traded higher ahead and through the report releases. Soybeans, however, surrendered its gains. What was particularly strong, moving back into alignment with our projections for higher prices.
