Headlines:

  • Iowa Ag Summit to Feature USDA’s Sonny Perdue (Farm Bill 2018 tops on list for discussion)
    Global agricultural leaders, farm-state lawmakers, and private and public agribusiness leaders will all convene in August for the Iowa Agriculture Summit. USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue will be the keynote speaker for this year’s annual event.
  • Analysts wrong-footed by tumble in corn prices – but not in soy, wheat
    Analysts appear to have been caught out among this week’s grains corrections particularly by corn’s retreat, with their forecasts for soybean and wheat still suggesting scope for price declines. Analysts at major commentators such as Australia & New Zealand Bank, Societe Generale and Commerzbank raised quarter-average price forecasts for all three of the commodities over the past month, according to research by FocusEconomics. The consensus forecast for Chicago soft red winter wheat futures saw a particularly strong upgrade, of $0.22 a bushel from the previous month, to a consensus of $4.91 a bushel for the October-to-December quarter. However, this figure – calculated from estimates made ahead of Wednesday’s US Department of Agriculture WASDE crop report which sent futures tumbling – remained below the level that investors were pricing in even at the nadir of the post-WASDE selling.
  • American Soybean Association CEO Named 2nd in charge at the USDA
    President Trump has nominated Steve Censky, the CEO of the American Soybean Association for the past 21 years, to be deputy secretary of agriculture. The deputy secretary traditionally manages the department’s day-to-day operations. “Our work has only just begun in delivering results for the people of American agriculture, and the experience and leadership skills of Stephen Censky will only enhance our efforts,” said Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue. “He will bring enthusiasm and a dedication to this country, which will be great assets to USDA’s customers. I am extremely pleased with the nomination for this key position and am hopeful that the Senate will take it up in short order.”

Summary:

The grain markets recovered some of the huge losses from yesterday’s massive down moves. Some profit taking and short covering ahead of the weekend was probably to blame given some news that short- term forecasts might be turning dryer and hotter once again. The stark reality is that we are in the midst of a “weather based market.” Sentiment that the huge sell-off yesterday may have been overdone has made its rounds in the trade but the reality is that volatile market action may be in play through the end of the month. Despite the National Weather Service calling for some better over the next 11 to 14 days, there is reportedly some serious issues for some crops already. The recent big precipitation has inhibited some growth in Wisconsin while at the same time the dry weather in the southern half of Illinois has been straining crops. Additionally, the heat out in the western Corn Belt remains an issue for crops there. Corn may be slated to rally from here but better weather can still put a damper on any proposed recovery.

September Corn was down 3.83% yesterday but recovered just shy of 2% today. September Beans recouped a 3rd of its losses from yesterday climbing 15 cents or 1.53% and Wheat was flat in its 1 cent rise after being down 22.75 cents yesterday.