Headlines:

  • Brazil’s New Soybean Planting Season Delayed by Dryness
    The Brazilian soybean crop 2017/2018 is already beginning. In the state of Paraná, producers are already authorized to start planting. The legal window of no field activity, between the end of the harvest of the old crop and the start of planting for the new season known as “sanitary vacuum” (vazio sanitário), is over. The phytosanitary policy prohibits cultivation during a period to control Asian rust in the state of Paraná. That pause period ended on September 10. Although producers in Paraná are authorized to plant, they haven’t been able to start sowing because of the unfavorable weather. With extremely dry weather and no rainfall forecast, the start of planting was postponed in some cities.
  • Soybean importers fight back – by growing their own
    Soybean importers are fighting back. China, the world’s biggest importer of the oilseed, may be poised for flat imports of the oilseed, ending a run of growth stretching back more than a decade. Oil World on Thursday forecast the country’s imports holding steady at 93m tonnes in 2017-18, starting in November, sapped by large carry-in inventories, after the buying spree of recent months, and by a rise in domestic production. The influential analysis group pegged Chinese production in 2017-18 rising by roughly 4m tonnes to 16m-17m tonnes, fuelled by farmers’ shift away from corn, as encouraged by a Beijing subsidy shake-up after a guaranteed pricing scheme saw the creation of huge state inventories of the grain. (For the record, the US Department of Agriculture, whose data set market benchmarks, this week lifted its forecast for China’s 2017-18 imports by 1.0m tonnes to 95.0m tonnes, on a harvest figure of 14.0m tonnes, although this upgrade did run counter to analysis by its Beijing bureau.)

Summary:

Soybeans traded lower overnight and into the day finishing 7.50 cents lower with traders locking in some profits after a 26-cent rise over the prior two trading days. Corn futures were lower overnight but managed to eke out a ½ cent gain when the dust settled at the closing bell. Wheat showed a bit of strength today after having posted two flat trading days. December Wheat was up 5.25 cents at the close. Crude Oil futures hit our 51.00 mark yesterday then eased off a bit. Today, Crude was able to close slightly higher at 50.83. The chart is looking poised to make a run at the 52.80 upside target.

Overhead we have potential resistance at 455.25 for December Wheat and 983.25 for November Beans. December Corn made a recent run at resistance near 363.25 and failed. This week it has been oscillating around the 315-degree price level of 354. A significant run past either side of that level could last for about 3-5 days. The recent USDA reports showed that damage from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma were not yet been factored into its estimates, which could be the reason for some of the recent strength in the price action. Many in the industry have stated that they already believed that the USDA’s projections were on the high side.