Headlines:
- First notice day for November futures is Monday, October 31st
- Fund data reveal ‘flow of fresh speculative money’ into ags
Data on hedge fund bets underlined the increased appeal of agricultural commodity investments – flagging a “flow of fresh money” into the sector, besides a hefty wave of closing of short bets. A report from US regulators backed ideas Agrimoney.com has highlighted last week of renewed fund interest in the top 13 US-traded agricultural commodities, showing an increase to more than 7m contracts in open interest – that is, the number of “live” contracts – in the week to last Tuesday. “Total open interest across ag markets increased for the fifth consecutive week, driven by a flow of fresh speculative money,” Rabobank said. The figure signaled the more nuanced picture behind the recent recovery in grain prices than just covering of short bets, spurred by the revelation two weeks ago that US wheat export prices were the world’s lowest, besides the passing of the US corn and soybean harvest into its latter stages..
- Feeder cattle prices rally on low US feedlot placements
Live cattle prices in Chicago rallied to a four-week-high, following data which showed that that the number of cattle in US feedlots at a record low. Friday’s Cattle on Feed report, from the US Department of Agriculture, showed placements, the number of cattle moved off pasture onto feedlots, at 1.905m head in September, well below analyst expectations of 2.011m head. This was down 2.0% compared to the same time last year, and a record low for the month of September. The total number of cattle on feedlots as of October 1 was seen at 10.266m head, marginally up from last year. Analyst forecasts pointed to a rise of 1.3%.
Summary:
The big upside move in Soybeans was not enough to outweigh the drag that harvest progress gains and heavy stocks put on Wheat and Corn today. In overnight trading and out the gate Soybean futures were very strong. November Beans was a tick off of touching the $10 mark today. It gave back a big portion of its gains during the middle of the regular session but recovered by the end of the day finishing at 990.75 (up 7.75). The January contract did close about the $10 level at 1001.25 (up 9.00). Soybean inspections were very strong beating trade estimates.
The Corn harvest made great progress and is almost 50% complete. Both the December and the March contracts finished down 3.75 breaking last week’s support levels. As Corn moves down from here finding support against the October 12 low is going to be key for the potential for continued strength. The Corn export inspections were well below trade expectations which contributed to today’s price pressure.
December Wheat futures was the biggest loser of the day. It surrendered 11 cents (2.65%). The poor inspections reports is probably most to blame for big selloff today.
