Headlines:

  • Brazil’s Soybean Planting Progress Hits 71% – Brazil’s largest soybean-producing state nears completion
    Curitiba consultancy AgRural says that the soybean planting progressed to 71% of the total surface in Brazil, as of Wednesday. There was an advance of 11 percentage points in one week. The country is estimated to plant 88.4 million acres. The average of the last five years for this period is 57%. In the state of Mato Grosso, the largest producing state, the planting progress reached a stunning 96%. At this same day of last year, just 79% of the area was planted. In the municipality of Nova Mutum, there is an expectation that the harvest would start as early as December 20th. In the state of Paraná, the works have advanced, recovering from the delay of October. AgRural announced that the planting reached 79% of surface, but a local government agency reported this week that the works progressed to 88% of the surface. “This crop has been so impressive. I have never seen a so favorable weather in one season. We saw rains in some parts of the state, but I could never plant that fast. We will finish before January,”  said agronomist and producer Ricardo Padulla, corn and soybean grower from Colorado, northwest of Paraná, who is used to harvest in January.
  • Upset by Trump’s Iran waivers, Saudis push for deep oil output cut
    When U.S. President Donald Trump asked Saudi Arabia this summer to raise oil production to compensate for lower crude exports from Iran, Riyadh swiftly told Washington it would do so. But Saudi Arabia did not receive advance warning when Trump made a U-turn by offering generous waivers that are keeping more Iranian crude in the market instead of driving exports from Riyadh’s arch-rival down to zero, OPEC and industry sources say.Angered by the U.S. move that has raised worries about over supply, Saudi Arabia is now considering cutting output with OPEC and its allies by about 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) or 1.5 percent of global supply, sources told Reuters this week. “The Saudis are very angry at Trump. They don’t trust him anymore and feel very strongly about a cut. They had no heads-up about the waivers,” said one senior source briefed on Saudi energy policies. Washington has said the waivers are a temporary concession to allies that imported Iranian crude and might have struggled to find other supplies quickly when U.S. sanctions were imposed on Nov. 4.

Summary:

The USDA Weekly Export Sales Report is delayed until Friday due to the Veterans Day Holiday and is expected to be favorable for soybean prices. In recent weeks, soybeans have managed a significant rally off its October 31 lows. Traders have sold off nearly half of the short positions that they at the end of October. Anticipate had risen that a trade deal was on the horizon. Last Thursday in its monthly WASDE report, the USDA confirmed that the US 2018-19 soybean ending stocks were big – 955 million bushels big. We cannot ignore the possibility of more speculative buying, but a new trade deal with China will not change the massive supplies that we have both nationally and globally. The has been little to no fresh fundamental news to trade for corn and beans which has made for some rangebound action. Corn has been feeling the pressure of the wheat market being down, and soybeans continue to find a little support with optimism regarding trade talks with China. Even if a deal is struck during the G20 meeting, we would be hard pressed to get a deal in place before the end of the year.