Headlines:
- NOPA Crush will be released Monday, May 16th at Noon EST
- Conab Lowers Brazil’s 2015-16 Soybean and Corn Crops
- 60% of the Brazilian Congress in both chambers is under investigation for wrongdoings such as bribery or are facing a corruption charge
Summary:
Soybean futures we lower today giving back some of the gains from yesterday. A bit of profit taking was to be expected as much of the move yesterday still stems from speculative fund manager positions. Once they start to unwind their net long positions a swift and hard down move is to be expected. Corn and Wheat were also lower on the day after market participants have had a day to mull over the USDA supply and Demand reports. US Crude Oil stockpile fell for the 1st time in 6 weeks according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) report released this morning. Crude inventories fell 3.4 million barrels in the week leading up to May 6th with imports falling an average 5,000 barrels per day. Analysts’ average estimates were looking for an inventory increase of 714,000 barrels.
In their latest monthly report, CONAB lowered their 2015-16 Soybean and Corn production estimates for Brazil. The 2015-16 Brazilian Soybean crop is now estimated 96.9 million tons which is down from last month’s estimate of 98.9 million tons. Current estimate levels for the 2015-16 Soybean crop is only slightly larger than the 96.2 million tons produced in last year’s crop.
The most noticeable change in the CONAB report was with its adjustment for the Brazilian Corn crop. The 2015-16 Brazilian Corn crop was reduced by 4.6 million tons to 79.9 million tons. Most of the decline was caused by the 4.2 million tons reduction in Safrinha Corn crop. The Safrinha Corn crop accounts for 66% of Brazil’s total corn crop.
The US is poised to import its largest Wheat cargo from the United Kingdom. A shipment is scheduled to arrive North Carolina on May 22nd. A weaker British currency, reduced freight values and British over supply have facilitated the transaction. The USDA is calling for the Wheat export business to pick up in the last month of the marketing year. The have increased their export projections from 775 million bushels to 780 million bushels.