Headlines:
- USDA Acreage Report is scheduled for June 30th
- First notice day for July grain and oilseed futures is Thursday, June 30th
- World wheat prices to hit fifteen-year low, says Australian government
Wheat prices are set to fall to 15-year lows in 2016-17, the Australian ministry of agriculture said. “The world wheat indicator price is forecast to average lower in 2016–17, reflecting an expected decline in import demand and plentiful supplies in some major exporting countries,” Abares said. Despite falling world production, Abares expects that supply will once again outstrip demand. “World wheat supplies are expected remain ample in 2016–17, with the rise in opening stocks more than offsetting a forecast decline in production,” Abares said. Abares forecast prices for US hard red winter wheat, in Gulf ports, to fall to $190 a tonne over 2016-17, compared to $212 a tonne in the previous marketing year. “If realized, this will be the lowest annual average price in real terms since 2001–02,” said Abares. Front-month hard red spring wheat futures in Kansas City are currently trading at around $4.60 a bushel, or $180 a tonne..
Summary:
Corn futures led the way dragging the grain markets lower with the prospect of improved weather conditions across the Midwest. Once again, Managed Money who had placed bets on the grain markets moving higher have been quick to sell off at the prospect of prices potentially topping. Corn had previously advanced over the past few weeks because the outlook for dry and hot weather that could stress crops. Now reports are surfacing that improved conditions may bring better than expected yields.
Today’s move left July Corn down 17 cents and December Corn down 15.75 cents. Soybean and Wheat followed suit. July Beans lost 11.50 and November Beans dropped 11.75. July Wheat finished off the trio losing 7.25 cents of its own. The next level of support for the July Corn contract is 415.50. Below that level we could see a sell off that pushes down to 408.25 in the next couple of days. Likewise, December Corn could move down to 418 if weakness continues this week. July Beans has support at 1110 and November Beans has support at 1076. We would not be surprise to see July Wheat make a push that tests 448.
US export inspections were noted to be good for grains this week with Corn coming in at 1.2 MMT, Wheat at 571 TMT and Soybeans at 314 TMT. On a side note, the US Ag attaché reports that the Philippines are expecting to import more Wheat for the 2016-2017 marketing year because of stronger demand in their livestock and poultry industries.
