Headlines:
– NOPA CRUSH WILL BE RELEASED TOMORROW AT NOON EASTERN
– USDA ACREAGE REPORT IS SCHEDULED FOR JUNE 30TH
– FIRST NOTICE DAY FOR JULY GRAIN AND OILSEED FUTURES IS THURSDAY, JUNE 30TH
– WIDESPREAD ILLEGAL GMO PLANTING IS A PROBLEM IN UKRAINE
REPORTS THAT 80% OF UKRAINE’S SOYBEAN CROP IS GROWN FROM ILLEGAL GENETICALLY–MODIFIED SEEDS ARE “PROBABLY TRUE,” MYKOLA KOVALSKI, ACCORDING TO THE CHIEF STRATEGY OFFICER AT ASTARTA. ASTARTA, A UKRAINIAN AGRIBUSINESS WHICH IS THE COUNTRY‘S LARGEST SUGAR PRODUCER, BUYS NON GM SEEDS FROM CANADA, SAID MR KOVALSKI. THE NON-GM MEAL PRODUCED MEANS THE COMPANY RECEIVES A PREMIUM FOR ITS PRODUCT. BUT MR KOVALSKI NOTED THAT IT WAS “DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE” THE SCALE OF GM PLANTING ACROSS THE COUNTRY, WITH FIELDS OF NON-GM AND GM SOYBEANS PLANT “IT IS A PROBLEM FOR US” HE SAID. LAST MONTH THE US DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE NOTED REPORTS THAT THE LARGE MAJORITY OF UKRAINE‘S SOYBEANS CROP WAS GROWN FROM GM SEEDS, DESPITE PLANTING OF SUCH CROPS BEING ILLEGAL. MOSANTO‘S ROUNDUP READY SEEDS, AN HERBICIDE–RESISTANT VARIETY, ARE BELIEVED TO BE THE MOST WIDELY PLANTED. THE USDA SAID THAT AROUND 10% OF THE COUNTRY‘S CORN CROP IS BELIEVED TO BE GENETICALLY MODIFIED. CHINA, THE WORLD‘S MAIN SOYBEAN IMPORTER, HAS STRICT CONTROLS IN PLACE FOR THE IMPORT OF GM CROPS.
Summary:
A mixture of strong crop progress and persistent profit taking kept grain market futures in check in early trading today. Corn, Soybean and Wheat all recovered off of their intraday lows with only Corn and front month Beans returning to positive territory heading into the close. The USDA report showed that about 75% of Corn and Beans were in good or excellent condition. November Beans has yet to reach 1200 and the July contract traded above it briefly on June 10th but that did not last very long. It is reasonable to assume that there are a number of limit sell orders at the 1200 level for both contracts.
Even though the crop ratings came in strong we are still very early in the season and it is not uncommon for ratings to be strong initially. The key is whether or not those ratings will hold. According to NOAA’s National Weather Service, the three biggest Corn and Soybean producing states got little to no rain over the past 30 days. The worst of the dry weather has been along the region of central Nebraska and moving east through Iowa into Illinois and Indiana. Additionally there has been extremely dry weather in Michigan. Those five states produce just over half the country’s Corn crop so we know conditions can change quickly if La Nina hits. Rain is forecast for parts of the Midwest this week. If beneficial rains persist look for prices to be held in check.
July and December Corn each finished up 6.50 cents today. July Beans were up 0.50 cents and November Beans down 9.50 cents. July Wheat was down a 4th consecutive day losing 4.50 cents. July Crude was down a 4th consecutive day as well but found support at just above our 47.50 level.
