Headlines:
– WEEKLY EXPORT INSPECTIONS WILL BE RELEASED MONDAY MORNING AT 11:00 AM EST
– WEEKLY CROP PROGRESS WILL BE RELEASED MONDAY AFTERNOON AT 4:00PM EST
– ROW CROP RALLY FALTERS, DESPITE BULLISH STOCKS NUMBERS
CORN AND SOYBEAN FUTURES RALLIED SHARPLY ON FRIDAY‘S WASDE, AS THE US DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE FORECAST TIGHTER–THAN–EXPECTED US CROPS AND TRIMMED BRAZILIAN PRODUCTION HOPES. BUT FUTURES CAME CRASHING DOWN WITHIN MINUTES, AS TRADERS SCRAMBLED TO TAKE PROFITS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
Summary:
The USDA WASDE Report was released today. Corn and Soybean were up and Wheat was down prior to the announcement. As expected there was a volatile move while the report was being digested but after about an hour the market settled down a bit looking to make sense of the data. All three markets moved lower post the announcements.
Corn – Planted Acres, Harvested Acres and Crop Yield were unchanged for both the old and new Corn Crop. Total Supply was up 5 million bushels for Old Crop and down 95 million bushels for the New Crop. Ending Stocks were reduced down to 1.708 billion bushels for the old crop (a change of -95 million bushels) meanwhile the new crop ending stocks shaved off 145 million bushels bringing it down to 2.008 billion bushels. Exports were up 100 million and 50 million respectively for the Old and New Crop.
Soybean – Planted Acres, Harvested Acres and Crop Yield were unchanged for both the old and new Soybean Crop. Total supply was unchanged for the Old Crop but down 30 million bushels for the New Crop. Exports were up 20 million and 15 million respectively. Ending Stocks were down 30 million from 400 to 370 million for the Old Crop and down 45 million from 305 to 260 million bushels for the New Crop.
All Wheat – Planted Acres & Harvested Acres were unchanged for both Wheat crops. Crop Yield was unchanged for the old and up 1.9 million bushels for the new Wheat crop. Total Supply was down 3 million bushels for the old crop and up 76 million bushels for the new corp. Old crop exports were down 5 million bushels and up 25 million bushels for the new crop. Ending Stocks came in at 980 (up 2 million) for the old crop and 1.050 billion (up 21 million) for the new crop.
The reported large supply of Wheat appears to have been the driving force in the sour grain market action today and some profit taking on the part of Managed Money at the onset of the WASDE Report release. Today was a classic case of “Buy the rumors – sell the facts.” Corn and Wheat finished down on the day and nearby Soybean was barely in positive territory. November Bean was up 10 cents. Beans finished well off of intraday highs. Crude Oil futures had another big down day of about $1.50.
