Headlines:

  • ‘Overly dry weather’ to prompt hefty drop in world grains harvest – IGC
    “Overly dry weather” has left the world on track for its steepest drop in grains output in at least a decade, the International Grains Council said, flagging “particular concerns” over supplies of high-quality wheat. The intergovernmental group cut by 11m tonnes to 2.04bn tonnes its forecast for world grains production in 2017-18, downgrading its harvest estimate for a third successive month. The revision reflected setbacks from dryness in many major producing areas, concerns over which sent the IGC’s grain and oilseed price index up 5% in July to a one-year high. “Because of overly dry weather, including in North America, the European Union and Australia, the outlooks for global maize (corn), wheat and barley harvests are revised lower,” the council said.
  • PotashCorp ups potash outlook – but cautions on nitrogen, phosphates
    PotashCorp hailed a “constructive” potash market as it raised its forecast for profits from the nutrient this year – in contrast to weakened expectations for its nitrogen and phosphate operations. The Canada-based fertilizer giant, which is amidst a merger with rival Agrium, raised to 62m-65m tonnes, from 61m-64m tonnes, its forecast for world industry potash shipments this year – taking the figure “well above” the volume of 60m tonnes achieved in 2016. The revision reflected in the main an upgrade to 15.5m-16.5m tonnes, from 14.5m-15.5m tonnes, in the forecast for Chinese volumes this year, as price weakness and “a move to balance fertility” spur consumption. “With recently settled contracts in China,” including a 1.4m-tonne deal through the rest of this year agreed with Canadian export consortium Canpotex last week, “we expect strong deliveries in the second half of 2017”, PotashCorp said. The estimate for full-year Latin American deliveries was also lifted, by 300,000 tonnes at both ends of the range to 12.0m-12.5m tonnes, after “robust” volumes in the first six months, with the forecast for India receiving a 200,000-tonne upgrade. “In India, we anticipate that a good monsoon, agronomic need and increased acreage will offset the impact of lower subsidies,” the group said.

 

Summary:

Corn, Wheat and Beans futures hold on posting a 2nd day of gains albeit small for Wheat and Corn. Corn gained only 3 ticks and Wheat added 6 ticks after settlement. Soybean was the strongest of the bunch rising 5.50 cents. Today’s USDA Weekly export sales showed Corn numbers at 578,600 metric tons. Trade expectations ranged from 350,000 to 800,000 MT. Wheat came in at 498,000 metric tons. Like Corn, the Wheat number was in mid-range of trade expectations. Wheat expectations ranged from 350,000-550,000 metric tons. Soybean number very strong reaching the top end of trade expectations which ranged from 300,000-900,000 metric tons. The Soybean number was 835,200 metric tons.

The Federal Reserve left its interest rate unchanged yesterday – no surprise. Fed noted that inflation was still under their 2% target and that it dipped lower than the level since their last meeting.