Headlines:
- French woes to depress EU wheat exports to four-year low
Wheat exports from the European Union, the top shipper, will fall to a four-year low thanks to the setback to the French crop, US officials said – but downplayed the prospect of a corresponding boost to Russian volumes. US Department of Agriculture bureau in the EU slashed to 30.5m tonnes their forecast for the bloc’s exports of wheat, including durum, in 2016-17 – ditching ideas of a rise in exports from the more than 32m tonnes shipped last season. Indeed, the bureau’s forecast is well below the USDA’s official forecast of 34.0m tonnes for 2016-17, and defied a “prompt” start to the new season, which began this month. The EU shipped 1.81m tonnes of soft wheat in the first three weeks of July, plus 69,000 tonnes of durum, compared with a combined 1.27m tonnes in the same period of last year. - Rabobank warns of cotton market correction…
Rabobank is bearish on the short term outlook for cotton futures, saying a recent rally had outpaced the fundamentals of the market. Rallying cotton prices, and relatively stable yarn prices “should incentivize mills to use more man-made fiber in order to maintain margins,” the bank warned. But the bank remains long-term bullish, citing the looming deficit of the fiber.
Summary:
On June 13th November Soybeans made a major top and declined 113.75 cents through June 24th. Viewing this move as the signature impulse of the downdraft we are able to derive some pertinent information. After the low on June 24th Beans proceeded to pullback and top on June 30th. Measuring from that pullback high a calculation of 1.618 times the 113.75 range would land at 976.50. The Move from June 13th to date is proving to trace out a very balanced Elliott Wave pattern. If this continues a minimum price objective of 933.25 is probable for this contract before it comes off the board. Today’s bounce is in line with near term support. End users and bargain hunters in conjunction with a potential uptick in export sales may also be part of the reason for the 12.75 cent rise today but it still finished well off the highs of the day. September and December were up 3 and 3.50 cents respectively. While September Wheat finished the day flat down one tick.
The National Weather Service is calling for thunderstorms in parts of Illinois, Iowa and Nebraska. Rain should continue in much of the Midwest throughout the rest of the week.
