Headlines:

  • The USDA will release Dec 1 Grain Stocks and the final 2016 crop report on January 12th at noon eastern
  • 10% of Argentina’s Soybean Crop Is Damaged, Experts Say – Some farmers face total crop losses…
  • Precipitation in US Plains sends wheat futures tumbling
    Markets may be strapped in for Thursdays’ US Department of Agriculture, but that doesn’t mean they’ve taken their eyes off the weather. US wheat futures tumbled, under pressure from easing dryness fears in the Plains. Snow and rain are headed from the country’s main hard red winter wheat growing area. “We have talked about the moisture that was going to move into the Southern Plains since Monday,” said Darrell Holaday at Country Futures. “The market today is finally reacting to the weather forecasts,” Mr Holaday said. “The moisture is still expected to be very significant for a large part of the Hard Red Winter Weat belt.” March Chicago wheat futures settled down 2.1%, at $4.18 ¾ a bushel. And in Kansas, March hard red winter wheat futures settled down 1.7%, at $4.30 ¾ a bushel.
  • Credit Suisse calms sugar, HFCS market nerves over Trump
    Investors may over overreacted, a little, to the threat posed to makers of corn sweeteners from the election of Donald Trump as US president, Credit Suisse said, seeing some scope for recovery in Tate & Lyle shares. In the sweeteners markets “one always has to consider the politics and the economics – and in that order”, Credit Suisse said, with corn, from which the likes of high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) are refined, and sugar strategic commodities for many of their producing countries. However, “we do not see a major political threat” to the markets, the bank said, adding that the “economics in the industry right now are very good”, estimating that makers of HFCS achieved 2-5% price increases for 2017 in their key annual negotiations with major users, such as soft drinks makers. While not the “bumper 12-13%” achieved for 2016, this year’s increase was enough to prevent “margin erosion” for HFCS makers, which besides Tate & Lyle, also include Archer Daniels Midland, Cargill and Ingredion

Summary:

The trade has its attention focused toward tomorrow’s USDA report scheduled for noon Eastern. All three markets were lower today but Corn and Soybean finished well off of their intraday lows. As anticipated Wheat did find resistance near 429. The media outlets would have us believe that it is the day to day new blurbs that move the daily action on the markets. If you take a look at our previous newsletters you will see that we called for resistance near 429 and a potential market reversal near January 10th. The Wheat uptrend started to stall on the 10th and today it had a pretty big move down. We have another time factor scheduled for near the 15th of the month followed by another closer to month’s end. If Wheat is able to continue making subsequent higher lowers when looking at the technical chart we would not be surprised be a big move to the upside. Corn finished the day down 1.25, Beans were off 3.75 and Wheat fell 8.75.

jan11