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  • La Nina fears help ags outperform, for once
    Agricultural commodities, helped by La Nina, enhanced their claim to be a bit of a contrarian bet. Broader risk markets carried a somewhat uncertain feel, with Wall Street shares again struggling to keep hold of upward momentum, a factor attributed by some to concerns that the US tax cuts package approved by the Senate over the weekend had been watered down a little bit, but by others to just to, well, the season. “Money flow can be an unexpected factor at a time where there is no dominant fundamental excitement,” according to Chicago area broker. “US stock Indices may have given the first signal a correction is possible with the sharply higher trade on Monday with a near low session close,” although adding that this was “just an observation at this time”. The Dow Jones industrial average share index stood down 0.1% in afternoon deals in New York, with broader ag markets weaker too, down 0.9% as measured by the Bcom, dragged lower by copper, among others, which hit a two-month low in London.

Summary:

Soybean futures traded higher today on indications of drying conditions in Argentina. Said conditions have prompted concern of possible lower production. Even with some showers in the forecast for Argentina later in the week the expectation is only for light scattered showers. Recent Informa estimates pegged the Brazilian 2017-18 Soybean production at 110 million metric tons which was down from the previous projection of 111 million metric tons. The January Soybean contract closed above the important $10 mark today. We had pegged key support and resistance at 984 and at 1000. Our anticipation was that the side that was breached first would in all likelihood have follow through. We are looking at a price objective of 1023 for the Jan Beans futures contract with the possibility of reaching 1032.

Corn was choppy today with little to no reason outside of the technical chart view to give rise to a major bottom. Corn futures ranged from closing flat to ½ cent in the money. Informa pegged the Brazilian Corn production at 89 million metric tons today which down from their previous estimate of 92 million metric tons. Wheat futures were down across the board ranging from 2.75 to 3.25 cents in losses. Unlike its Corn and Soybean counterparts, Informa Wheat projections were up from prior estimates coming in at 18 million metric tons.