Headlines:

  • US data, China fears add to soy price pressure
    Sellers lost a bit of their focus on grains, but maintained fire on soybeans, which took their losses this week above 5% on continued ideas of benign Midwest weather for what is the crop’s key month. Chicago corn futures reversed some of their early losses to stand down 0.3% at $3.77 ¼ a bushel for December delivery in midday deals, helped by an Informa Economics estimate of a 165.9 bushels-per-acre corn yield.
  • Food prices hit highest since 2014, led by dairy, grains, sugar
    Food prices have hit their highest since 2014, led by rise by grains and sugar, and a lift in dairy values to a three-year high – although there are some questions over dairy appreciation continuing. A food price index compiled by the United Nations food agency, the Food and Agriculture Organization, hit 179.1 last month, the highest since December 2014, and a gain of 2.2% month on month. The index has now recovered 20% from a low reached early last year. “A combination of supply constraints and currency movements provided support to prices of most cereals, sugar and dairy,” the FAO said.
  • Brazil to see ‘another big crop planted’ for 2017-18, says Bunge
    Brazil is poised for large crop plantings for 2017-18, despite weaker prices, Bunge chief executive Soren Schroder said – giving an upbeat outlook for global rapeseed production too. There has been some idea that growth in Brazilian sowings of corn and soybeans may slow in 2017-18, thanks to a retreat in prices of both crops, depressed in local terms by strength in the real besides by pressures on international markets. The International Grains Council last week forecast a 3% drop in Brazil’s corn sowings, to 16.8m hectares, citing that “average values are more than 40% lower year on year, pressured by a much more comfortable supply outlook”, although seeing area switched to soybean seedings. “Farmers could be encouraged to shift some full-season corn area to soybeans in less productive regions given prospects for relatively poor returns,” the council said, forecasting a 2% rise in Brazil’s 2017-18 soy sowings, which start next month.

 

Summary:

Soybean crops are the beneficiary of much needed rain in the Midwest but that was not what the bulls were looking for. Soybean futures continued it is losing ways after a small reprieve yesterday. November Beans settled with a 15 ½ cent loss on the day. December Corn fared better only losing ½ cent and December Wheat rounded out the day with a 3 ¼ decline. September Crude continues to find resistance at our pivotal 50.50 mark. Our metrics suggest that if it is not able to break through 50.50 soon that it may be in for a larger correction in the near-term. The private analyst firm Informa released its crop estimates for Corn and Soybean which were both below the USDA July numbers.

Today’s USDA Weekly Export sales numbers for Wheat came in at 145.5k metric tons which was well below trade estimates. Corn was at the low end of trade expectations at 475k metric tons and Soybean was in the middle of trade expectations at 600.9k metric tons.