Headlines:
- THE PRO-FARMER CROP TOUR IS ALMOST OVER. IT FINAL DAY IS TOMORROW, AUGUST 25TH.
- CROP REPORTS CAN‘T GENERATE CORN MARKET MOMENTUM
Wheat extended the previous session’s sharp losses, while corn and soybeans fell despite results from the influential Pro Farmer crop tour, which are being viewed as lower than expected. Two weeks ago, markets greeted the news that the US Department of Agriculture was forecasting massive corn and soybean yields in the US with a resounding shrug. The trade indicated there was widespread skepticism over the record yield numbers. So it is perhaps no surprise that markets aren’t getting much support from the results of the Pro Farmer crop tour, which suggests that the corn crop, although “inconstant” and well short of the USDA yield forecast, is still likely to be very large.
“Markets don’t seem interested in trading crop tour numbers right now, instead focusing on mostly non-threatening weather to close August and the need to keep shipping exports to hit USDA targets,” said Tregg Cronin, at Halo Commodities. “The final corn yield needs to be sub-170 to make the balance sheet interesting, and that seems to be the attitude of the market,” Mr Cronin said. The USDA pegged corn yield expectations at a whopping 175.1 bushels per acre.
“There is little doubt that the predominant thought in the industry in that the US corn yield will not be over 172 bushels per acre,” said Darrell Holaday, at Country Futures. “But you could not tell that by the way the futures market is acting,” he noted.
Summary:
Corn, Soybean and Wheat futures started the day under pressure and even though there was a bit of intraday reprieve the day ended with all three markets down. The export news that had been serving to buoy Soybean futures was not as plentiful as what was seen last week and we are approaching a point where the export news may not be strong enough to keep Soybean prices stable. Corn was only down 0.75 cents, Beans was down 9.50 and Wheat gave up 1 cent.
The trade is not really trading in concert with the Pro Farmer Tour results that have been trickling out. Instead, with weather concerns fading, the markets are finding trouble holding up. The Pro Farmer Corn results for Nebraska where about 2.69 BPA shy of its three year average and Indiana’s Corn results were 8.31 BPA shy of its three year average. According to the tour, the Corn crop in southwestern Iowa showed above average yield potential but its numbers were lagging behind the USDA’s lofty projection for the state.
