Headlines:

  • FIRST NOTICE for May grain futures was today
  • NAFTA talks offer hope to US farmers seeking ‘grain trading equality’
    The renegotiation of the NAFTA treaty proposed this week, as President Donald Trump backed away from a threat to withdrawn the US from the agreement, could bring “fairer treatment” for the country’s wheat farmers, officials said. The US Department of Agriculture’s Ottawa bureau, said that US growers were eyeing “fairer grain grading rules” as part of a reworking of NAFTA, the free-trade agreement with Canada and Mexico which the three countries agreed this week to renegotiate. Current rules do not allow imported wheat, even if from a seed registered for growing in Canada, to be graded by the official Canadian Grain Commission, hampering its use for anything but livestock feed. “US wheat delivered to a Canadian grain elevator is sold as either feed grade (lowest grade) or according to a specification at any price agreed to by the buyers and seller,” the bureau said.

Summary:

The reluctance to consume genetically modified (GMO) crops  has been mounting in for Chinese consumers and the sentiment is starting to impact the demand of soy oil. Soy oil is China’s main cooling oil (accounts for more than 36% of all cooking oil used- the next higher oil type is barely in double digits) and if the trend continues the crushing industry may find itself in a bit of trouble because it depends on GMO Soybeans from the US and other GMO Soybean producing nations. The Chinese government says GM foods are as safe as conventional foods, but wealthier urban consumers are replacing soy oil with sunflower, peanut or sesame – all of which are free of biotech raw materials.

Corn and Soybean futures finished marginally lower today and Wheat was basically flat. Corn was flat for the week. Wheat finished higher and Soybean was down. The markets were mixed this week and there was little offered to explain its movements. Today was the last day of trading for the month as well as first notice for May expiry grain and oilseed futures. So perhaps that was the simple rationale for the churning that occurred this week. Forecasts are calling for wet weather this weekend and we still don’t know what will come of the proposed NAFTA negotiation talks. We also have North Korea looming in background as a potential war threat. It appears then that the masses are taking a wait-and-see approach. If the inclement weather causes losses to Corn and Wheat crop acreage, look for prices to stabilize.