Headlines:
- NOPA Crush will be released Monday, May 16th at Noon EST
- The next USDA crop production and S/D report is scheduled for May 10th
- Unemployment statistics will be released Friday, May 6th at 8:30AM EST
- Kansas wheat in top condition, futures tumble
Wheat futures slumped on Thursday, as prospects in the top US growing state of Kansas improved, while fund support for soymeal, which has been lending strength throughout the grain complex, melted away, as a rallying dollar piled on pressure across the commodity complex. And speculative selling sent overbought sugar futures sharply down. Markets are poised for Friday’s monthly US employment report, which is expected to show an increase in the number of jobs, extending the longest positive run on record. And there are noises from a number of US Federal Reserve officials that a June rate hike is still on the cards, if the US economy continues to grow, which is supportive for the dollar. Richard Feltes, at RJ O’Brien, noted that the “dollar weakness in late March and April that supported the soy rally has moderated”. The dollar was up 0.6% against a basket of world currencies, as Chicago markets closed, up more than 2% since the one-and-a-half year lows touched on Tuesday. – Source: agrimoney.com
Summary:
The weekly export sales figures were released today for both the current and deferred marketing years. Soybean sales decisively beat expectations for both marketing year but prices were still sent hurling down despite the strong numbers. Early in the week, it was our position that the tail end of the week could mark a pause in what has been a strong run up in the Beans market. We shared that July Beans had resistance at 1063.75 and November Beans at 1024.25. Both futures contract tested their respective levels yesterday and have fallen from those levels. SO it appears that the market cycles are trumping the affects today’s news. With only ¾ of the marketing year expired to date Soybean commitments are already at 99.5% of the USDA’s export total.
Corn exports have been on a pretty strung so today’s numbers coming in on the low end of expectations for the current marketing year and about a 1/3 of the low end of the next marketing year was received as a disappointment. Today’s Corn export figures are the lowest in about three months with total commitments sitting at 90% of the USDA’s export total. We believed that July Corn would trade between 388.50 and 369 this week and that has been very close to the trading range this week. The low of the week so far 371.25 which was reached today. December Corn has also been true to form. Our projected trading range for the Dec contract was 396 down to 376.
Wheat export sales were in the middle of expectations for the current marketing year and well below the low end of expectations for the next marketing year. The combined sales number was the lowest in a month which led to a sizable drop for Wheat futures. Today’s low of 461.75 is well inside of our 460 to 465 target range and looks to continue lower. The next objective is at about 450. With just over a month remaining in the marketing year, Wheat commitments are currently at 96% of the USDA’s total.
Our Crude Oil top continues to hold. After dropping for the past three days, the futures contract was up to its usually tactics. In early trading there was a bit of a price rally that most assuredly shook out some weak hand. Today’s rally did not hold with prices returning to the low end of the day’s range.
