Headlines:
- First Notice Day for May grain futures is April 29th.
- Corn and wheat ease in a day of profit taking
It was a day of profit taking on the grain markets, as corn and wheat futures turned lower. And soft markets saw a sell-off, as ideas of ample supplies of coffee and sugar from Brazil grew. “There is not a lot of fresh news in the marketplace,” noted Ami Heesch, at CHS Hedging. “Grain and soybean weakness is being attributed to technical profit taking rather than the lack of fresh news,” said Kim Rugel, at Benson Quinn Commodities. Tregg Cronin, at Halo Commodities, noted “back and fill trade,” as the industry chews over last week’s rally.
Summary:
Today’s FOMC meeting ended with no interest rate increases expected until the June meeting at the earliest. Today’s statement looks to have little near-term impact on market price action but the posting its first quarterly decline in 13 years did weigh heavy on the equity markets today.
Tomorrow morning the US Department of Commerce will release its 1st quarter GDP numbers. Consensus estimates are coming in at 0.7% growth which is half of the previous quarter’s dismal growth number. Clearly the economy continues to be fragile despite headlines suggesting that the economy is okay.
Crude Oil continues to march higher into our potential cycle timeline at the end of the week. We are now entering a seasonal period that suggests decline in the markets is coming soon. The technical chart has completed what looks to be an Elliott 5-Wave pattern but we would like to see confirmation of weakness prior to stepping in front of what has been a strong move up from the lows.
The Grain markets were all lower today on lighter volume. In fact, the complex has seen declining volume over the past 3 trading days. With the large spike in volume that the grain markets experience into the recent tops if the next spike in volume does not result in eclipsing the recent highs prices are inclined to sail lower. Fresh news was lacking today with much of the focus still on weather across the Midwest parts of the US and on South America.
May Corn lost 2.25 cents closing at 380 and December Corn lost 5 cents at 389.50. May Soybeans held its own today and was only down 3.25 cents. It stayed inside of a tight inside bar trading range. November Beans lost 8.25 cents but that was on the lightest volume over the past 4 trading days. Lastly July Wheat gave up 3.25 cents and is below resistance. It have key resistance at 487.
