Headlines:

  • Northern Midwest Storms to Abate, Tropical Rains May Reach Missouri (Tropical rain from Pacific may head into southern Midwest)
    Localized flooding in parts of southeastern South Dakota, northern Iowa, and southwestern Minnesota is expected to begin easing as the weekend approaches, but rains are on the way to parts of the southern Midwest starting next week. The northwestern Midwest has received as much as 4 inches of rain with some localized areas getting closer to 6 inches, according to David Streit, a senior agricultural meteorologist with Commodity Weather Group. Rainfall the past couple of days will take some time to dry out and precipitation next week in parts of Oklahoma, Missouri, and possibly southern Illinois likely will slow the U.S. corn harvest. About 9% of the U.S. corn crop was harvested as of September 16, up from the prior five-year average of 6% for this time of year, the Department of Agriculture said in a report this week. In Nebraska, about 4% has been collected (up from the average of 2%), South Dakota farmers have only harvested 2%, and Minnesota growers have barely started with only 1% in the bin, according to the USDA. “The northwest area (of the Midwest) is likely to get a break for five to seven days, so that should help (them dry out) quite a bit,” Streit said. “The only thing I’m worried about is some models that want to bring some (precipitation) back into the area as we get into the 11- to 15-day time frame, but it’s too far out to make much of a judgement on that.” It usually takes about 10 days for fields to dry down enough to run heavy harvesting equipment, so whether there is a storm in the 11- to 15-day outlook forms is “really important,” he said.
  • Trump says OPEC ‘monopoly’ must get prices down
    U.S. President Donald Trump linked American support for Middle Eastern countries to oil prices on Thursday as he again urged OPEC to lower prices. “We protect the countries of the Middle East, they would not be safe for very long without us, and yet they continue to push for higher and higher oil prices! We will remember. The OPEC monopoly must get prices down now!” Trump wrote on Twitter.

Summary:

Volatility fell to historically low levels for corn this week, triggering a significant round of call option buying on Wednesday. That move in turn triggered short sides to take profit today pushing corn to close 6.50 cents in the positive on the day. We have potential resistance sitting 355-356 for the December contract. The USD continues to move lower potentially adding some support to the grain and oilseed markets. Beans also rallied on the day and that too was likely due to short covering. The was little news in the trade to support the advance today. There were rumor of Argentina proposing export tax increases for beans and meal but there was nothing definitive. Wheat finished the day close to flat giving up 1 tick at settlement.