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  • Due to Martin Luther King Day, grain markets will be closed Sunday night and Monday during the day. Trade starts back up Monday evening
  • The January USDA WASDE, Grain Stocks and Winter Wheat Seedings report are due out January 12th at 11:00 AM CST
  • Grain prices revive, amid worries over extent of corn shorts
    Grain futures, having in the last session shrunk in the face of a slew of US Department of Agriculture data on Friday, with the likes of Brazil and China releasing crop data this week too, rebounded on Tuesday, amid ideas that the negative sentiment may have gone too far. After all, the fall in corn futures in the last session near to contract lows, provoking fears of worsened chart appeal, was accompanied by a mammoth rise in open interest, of more than 39,000 contracts. That took total open interest to 1.59m metric tons, the highest since late November, signaling that a stack of fresh fund short bets fueled the price weakness of the last session.
  • Can corn futures avoid setting a fresh contract low
    Speaking at the American Farm Bureau’s annual convention, US President Donald Trump on Monday touched on issues concerning agriculturists such as regulations, labor and trade. While praising farmers for their enduring values, Mr. Trump also acknowledged controversy over the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and other trade agreements that account for roughly one-quarter of US agriculture revenues. “To level the playing field for all of our farmers and ranchers as well as our manufacturers we are reviewing all of our trade agreements,” he said. “On NAFTA I am working very hard to get a better deal for our farmers and ranchers and manufacturers.”.

Summary:

Trade consensus suggest that both Corn and Wheat futures are benefitting from some short covering. Yesterday, open interest in the Corn futures market surged 42k contracts on a down day. An increase of open interest on what was a down day suggests that new comers were entering short positions and traders who have visibility may have profited on a short-term turnaround. The uptrend in Wheat remains intact even though it may be due for a correction. As long as it has a retracement that is able remain above the 416 to 420 range we anticipate higher prices ahead. Expectations for Friday’s USDA report on Wheat is for fewer acres which means that the continued supportive data for Wheat may be on the horizon. Corn and Wheat needs to see improvement in demand in order to then to have sustained strength. Soybeans traded lower again on expectations for Brazil’s Soybean production to be increased.