Headlines:

  • Ag markets will not trade next week on Friday, April 14th in observance of the Good Friday Holiday
  • wheat leads grains lower, on slow shipments
    Wheat prices led grains lower, as markets fret over the pace of exports for the old crop, as the new crop harvest gets ever closer. Weekly US wheat export sales came in at a hefty 568,400m tonnes. This was well ahead of analyst expectations, which ranged between 250,000 to 450,000 tonnes. And this is also well above the average pace that will be needed to reach the USDA’s forecast for 2016-17 export numbers. But the fact that there are only nine weeks left in the wheat marketing year mean the focus is much more on the pace of shipments, with markets waiting to see if all those booked cargoes will actually leave, or be rolled over into the next marketing year.
  • UN forecasts ‘relative tranquility’ in grain markets in 2017-18
    The United Nations forecast “relative tranquility” ahead for grain prices as – unlike some other commentators – it forecast a further rise in world wheat inventories next season, besides a record coarse grains harvest. The UN food agency, the Food and Agriculture Organization, said that world cereal supplies looked poised to “remain ample” in 2017-18, supported by near-record production at a time of “relatively weak growth” in consumption. The dynamic “points to another season of relative market tranquility”, the FAO said, with large stocks stemming the need of buyers to pay up for supplies. Indeed, the FAO said that inventories would end the season at a “comfortable” level of 25.4% of consumption, equivalent to three months of demand, above the 20.5% figure recorded in 2007-08, when supply tightness sent prices soaring.

 

Summary:

The markets were unilaterally up yesterday but that was not the case today. The markets elected to sell off a bit today after the Weekly USDA Sales Report. Both Corn and Wheat were at the high end of expectations. Corn sales came in at net sales of 1,138,100 MT for 2016-2017 (up 59 percent from the previous week and 13 percent from the prior 4-week average). Wheat net sales were 568,400 metric tons for delivery in the 2016-17 marketing year, which was up 23 percent from the previous week and 48 percent from the prior 4-week average. Finally, Soybean sales were 482,000 MT for 2016-2017 (down 29 percent from the previous week and 11 percent from the prior 4-week average).