Commodity Bears Unfazed by Delayed Planting (Soybeans hit new lows for the year)

“The funds are selling and this is for the second day in a row,” says Jack Scoville of PRICE Futures Group.  “They are short and selling more.  Not a lot of news out there, but the weather forecast overall remains wet and if this wet weather keeps up there will be a time the funds will start to lose.  That time might take a turn to May.  Other than that, no one is talking about much–no news of China and the EU apparently willing to play a bit of hardball on the US in its trade negotiations and Bloomberg TV talking about the EU going after the ag trade.” Jason Ward, director of grains and energy for AgMotion, Inc., says that trading is “maybe a little different than producers might have thought given some rain systems moving across the Midwest late week. After holding supports last week this week we have plunged to new lows for the month in the wheat, and new lows for the year in the soybeans, while corn has been pulled down to test key lows from Feb/March.”


Grain markets will close at regular time on Thursday but will not open until Sunday night in observance of the Good Friday holiday. The European Union has signaled that it will enter trade negotiations with the US but said discussions is said to exclude discussions on agriculture trade. Soybean continues to lose ground this week with beans giving up almost 10 cents on the day. Corn hovered close to neutral on the day after before finishing the day down 1 cent. Wheat bounded back a bit after big losses earlier in the week. It was up 2.50 cents on the day.

Our outlook for the next two weeks is for corn and soybean to finish off the last two weeks of the month trading sideways to slightly down. Both markets are close to finding a little bit of support but if the fundamental narrative is not able to change; they are looking at the prospect of much lower prices over the summer. Markets will probably be quiet tomorrow ahead of the long weekend. Traders will probably take a risk off approach in trading tomorrow and try to avoid initiating new heavy positions.